Content／学習内容

• Introduction: Re-Designing Japan’s Future Vision

  This lecture focuses on the past and future of Japan. After the self-introduction by the lecturer and the course overview, Japan’s vision of peace and conflict in the Indo-Pacific region is discussed. Policy simulation will also be introduced as a very powerful tool to look into the Indo-Pacific cooperation.

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  • Introduction

    After the self-introduction of the lecturer, an analytical approach to the question “Why did we change the strategic narrative from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific” is discussed. The course overview and its schedule are also introduced.

  • Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP): Japan’s Focus on Connectivity.

    To understand the Japan’s view of peace and conflict in the Indo-Pacific, the keyword is FOIP. To achieve FOIP, strategy is crucial and given the diverse political interests, war visions and understanding of different countries, there is the need for policy simulation on how countries will react to international crises.

  • 3 Steps to Policy Simulation

    Policy simulation exercise involves three crucial steps; Black Swan situations; Red Team thinking, and SWOT analysis. Actors play policy games based on DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic) options.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Introduction: Policy Simulation Methodologies

  The third step of the policy simulation is introduced, which is “designing the actor’s roles” that leads to the strategy of Ends-Means Co-relations. “End” is the long term goals set by using SWOT analysis. “Mean” is the policy options analyzed by DIME. The combination of these two creates the formula of the policy simulation.

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  • Introduction to Policy Simulation (cont’d)

    Explanation on the three steps of Policy Simulation continues with “Designing Actor’s Roles.” SWOT analysis as the long term goals and DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic) as policy options are introduced.

  • DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic) Options and their Significance

    Details of each of the DIME options and its different styles are introduced for better understanding of DIME.

  • Wrap-up of Introductions

    The policy simulations on Japan’s future in regards to Indo-Pacific using the 5W&1H methodology are summarized. The basic value and vision of Japan’s Indo-Pacific is that it shall be “Free and Open” for both Japan and those who share similar norms.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• International Order and Japan 1

  The lecture highlights strategies of policy formulation and how actors can think of their strenghths and weaknesses in a global power play. History plays an important role in such thinking. Japan’s history after WWII can be divided into eight phases, with every decade having had a impact on the history. This lecture covers the first 2 phases of the History of Japan after WWII. After understanding those 2 phases, the students are asked to conduct a policy simulation to experience the SWOT analysis and formulate strategies using DIME options.

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  • Japan’s History from Occupation to Global Cold War

    Japan’s history after WWII can be splitted into eight phases, each with a different concept. In this part, the first two phases, “From Occupation to Independence” and “WWII to Global Cold War” are covered.

  • Task: Revisiting Red Team Thinking

    The task entails thinking through the North Korean perspective using SWOT analysis and the DIME policy options.

  • Task(cont’d): SWOT Analysis of DPRK

    From the perspective of DPRK, think critically and identify its strength/weakness, opportunity/threat for SWOT analysis and formulate one’s strategy and goals which could be short or long term using the DIME options.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• International Order and Japan 2

  The Korean War of 1950, the Cold War consensus and history of Japan-US alliance is crucial in policy formulation. The point is that the aftermath of the Korean War, the Division of Korea, and communist victory in Vietnam has continued to shape contemporary international relations and will be a key factor in thinking about the unthinkable. Japan, the US, South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan and other western countries have deepened their alliances today and have consistently fought to protect international security against the aggressions and undemocratic acts of Red Team countries. Cold War history will continue to shape relations even more in the coming years.

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  • Korean War → Real World and Simulation

    In order to discuss the impact of the Korean War of 1950, part I covers the historical background behind the Korean War.

  • Cold War Consensus in Post-Korean War Era

    The Korean war set the tone of alliance networks and shaped greatly Japan’s DIME options. This part focuses on understanding the international aspect of the Korean War through DIME analysis on the impact of the Cold War Consensus.

  • Policy Simulation: Virtual History of the Korean War.

    What if the Korean War took a very different path with a very different impact? In this part, students will challenge the policy simulation of “another” Korean War, a virtual history by “thinking about the unthinkable.”

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• International Order and Japan 3

  Quite unique is the position of Japan from an enemy state before 1945, to that of strong US partner in the Cold War and post-Cold War times. In almost all Cold War splits, Japan has always remained westward-oriented against the communist east. Japan’s security policies looks likely to tilt towards nuclear non-proliferation, democracy expansion, free market economy and liberal international order. Black Swan situations like the case of Afghanistan, Ukraine, Gaza etc., will continue to be a cause for stronger Japan-US strategic collaboration.

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  • The Cold War and Japan

    The Cold War had a tremendous impact not only in the Far East but in the world generally. One of the impacts was the deepening of globalization. The second impact is militarization, that is, to step up efforts like more tanks, aircrafts, missiles for hitting and targeting enemy territories/infrastructure even though there was no direct confrontation. Why the Cold War became a peaceful situation will also be discussed.

  • Long Peace: Bipolar Stability Structure and the New Japan-Us Alliance

    The Long Peace of the Cold War disappeared despite our estimates. The need for equal partnership, prior consultation on matters like weapon type, deployment areas, and mission target all created the need for the revision. This led to the revision of the Japan-US Alliance in 1960 which had an impact on Peace and Security in the “Far East.” The background of the Vietnam War is also discussed.

  • Détente and Burden-Sharing

    Détente implies the period of relaxation of tensions during the Cold War. After examining the burden-sharing and détente through Nixon/Guam doctrine and Rapprochement with China, Japan’s vision on détente is also discussed. This part ends with a conclusion on the Cold War and Japan by mentioning alliances in the Asia-Pacific, alliance “burden-sharing” issues and the sudden ending of bipolar stability structure in the 1980s.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan and the Post-Cold War International Society

  Security challenges in Asia did not disappear with the end of the Cold War. Asian countries faced with conflicts in the South China Sea, China nuclear testing, North Korean tests of missiles and nuclear weapons, challenge of the Taiwan’s straits, and Global War on Terror after 9/11. The alliance with the US, therefore, remains a critical tool for extended deterrence for Tokyo. Japan’s security strategies did not limit its ties with the US, but also with “like-minded” partners across the region.

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  • The End of the Cold War

    The world witnessed the end of Cold War first in Europe and then in Asia. How Japan responded to the post-Cold War era is examined using DIME approaches, and compared with a European experience.

  • Post-Cold War Japan-Asia situation

    The Japan-Asia situation in the post-Cold War era is discussed mainly regarding the regional conflicts in Asia, including Japan-North Korea relations, missile testing, Taiwan Strait crises and history issues. Issues regarding the reconfirmation of alliances are also covered.

  • The world after the Cold War

    As a wrap-up of the lecture, the lecturer summarizes the end of the Cold War by reviewing the DIME analysis. A brief introduction to the next lecture on the roles, missions and capabilities of the UN Peace Operation after the Cold War is also provided.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan as a Global Actor 1

  Japan had a unique approach to peace, which is a bit different from UN peacekeeping operations. Japan’s International Peace Cooperation Activities (IPCA), or so called “engeneering peace” lies in its abstention from engaging in direct combat and focuses on technical support to the post-conflict reconstruction. While this approach is crucial in providing the needs of conflict societies, its limitation will continue to be tested by situations that become increasingly coercive.

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  • Japan’s Uniqueness: International Peace Cooperation Activities (IPCA)

    After the Cold War, Japan found a unique role in international peace cooperation led by the Self-Defense Forces (SDFs) under the title of International Peace Cooperation Activities (IPCA). Why was such a long and unique title adapted? Its historical and cultural background will be explained in detail.

  • Self-Defense Forces’ First UN Mission: Cambodia

    After the Cold War, Japan was expected to play a new role as a leading economic power. Due to the memories of the Asia-Pacific War, Japan’s armed forces was established in 1954 for “exclusive self-defense”. In the 1990s Tokyo started a debate about how Japan could possibly make “a contribution to international peace”.

  • Implications: Liberal International Order (LIO)

    The concept “Liberal International Order (LIO) ” is now widely used, but it was a new and tremendous challenge for Tokyo in the 1990s. This lecture will look into how Japan made a substantial contribution, especially through the UN channel, to this new order.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan as a Global Actor 2: UN Peacekeeping Operation in Timor-Leste

  Japan demonstrated its leadership in collaboration with regional institutions like ASEAN. Such endeavors highlight the importance of working with local stakeholders for successful peace operations. Technology and discipline are critical tools in this regard. Japan’s “engineering peace” approach in Cambodia, Timor-Leste, and South Sudan are typical cases. The next step is how to prevent conflicts.

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  • Engineering Peace

    Japan introduced a unique approach to peace operations, which is called ”engeneering peace.” This lecture describes how and why this approach was formed in the post-Cold War period.

  • Engineering Peace and Human Security

    Based on lessons learned from the Cambodian case, Japan expanded its engineering mission in Timor-Leste, Haiti, and South Sudan. The next step was to combine this engineering approach with the UN Trust Fund for Human Security.

  • Lessons from Timor-Leste: Engineering Peace Revisited

    SWOT analysis of the Timor-Leste case reveals one weakness of Japan’s peace activities: non-deplyment of heavy military equipment. The impact of Japan’s engeneering peace may be somewhat limited when it comes to a more coercive environment.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan as a Global Actor 3: UN Peacekeeping Operation in South Sudan

  South Sudan was a unique case for Tokyo in the sense that it was the first troop deployment in Africa. Along with Japan’s Offical Development Aid and technological assistance, this approach supported local economies in this newly independent country.

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  • UN Peacekeeping in South Sudan

    This part covers South Sudan and Japan’s mission and participation in Africa which was a huge challenge for the SDF in Japan. This part will look into UN Peacekeeping in South Sudan through the perspective of engineering peace. Snap shots from the website of the Ministry of Defense are also shared.

  • Analyzing Japan’s Peace Mission in South Sudan

    This lesson adapts the DIME approach to analyze Japan’s participation in the UN South Sudan mission. The diplomatic option here illustrates Japan’s expanding strategic horizons in Africa.

  • UNMISS through DIME Analysis

    Through the DIME analysis, it became clear that UNMISS once again provided the platform to work with “like-minded partners” in fostering the conditions necessary for Liberal International Order. South Sudan highlighted the need for revisiting the UNPKO and the need to adhere to concepts like impartiality and neutrality.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan as a Global Actor 4: Capacity Buidling Assistance

  Contemporary peace operations need to deal with multi-faceted challenges, such as the protection of civilians (POC) in an intra-state conflict. For Japan, capacity building support is crucial for supporting ASEAN’s centrality. This regional platform, backed by the inter-connectivity of other regions, is crucial for fostering peace toward a global stage.

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  • Capacity Building Assistance

    Japan’s support to ASEAN countries revolved around capacity building, overseas development assistance, and support for resilience. This class starts with the question “why security cooperation matters for Japan?” which is answered from an international cooperation perspective with ASEAN partners. An overview of Japan Ministry of Defense (MOD) Capacity Buidling Assistance will be also described.

  • Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR)

    Japan has experienced a series of disasters like the Triple-Disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear disaster. Tokyo has played a unique role in training ASEAN countries on how to respond to large-scale disasters, based on its own experiences.

  • Changing Nature of Conflicts: Regional and Functional Shift

    In explaining why security cooperation matters, two points are critical: regional focus and functional shift. Japan drew key lessons from challenges facing international missions, then became focused on the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, Japan faced the challenge of responding to intra-state conflicts, where the unity of commands is definitely necessary.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan in the Global War on Terror (GWOT) 1

  The 9/11 attack on the US was a Black Swan event, which marked the beginnning of the GWOT. It questioned the effectiveness of military deterrence, and made crucial the comprehensive review of national security concepts to incorporate terrorism by non-state actors.

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  • 9/11 and the War in Afghanistan

    On Sept. 11, 2001, the world changed. The impacts of 9/11, and the so called “Global War on Terror” are analyzed using the DIME analysis.

  • 9/11 and Japan’s Position

    Japan’s perspective of 9/11 is discussed. Japanese prime minister, Koizumi Junichiro, fully supported US President Bush’s poilcy and ensured the solid Japan-US alliance. It led to so-called Koizumi Diplomacy, which had a very visible impact on the world media. Tokyo supported the US-led coalition by “counter terrorism activities” such as refueling missions in the Indian Ocean, and Demilitarization/Demobilization/Reintegration (DDR) in Afghanistan.

  • Policy Simulation of the Afghanistan War

    Students join in a “policy simulation” exercise to have a broader view of the case. In the Afghan case, the main actors are United Nations, the US, NATO, Japan, Afghanistan (non-Taliban), and the Taliban. Setting actor’s strategic goals and long-term perspectives is key. For Japan, Afghanistan was a wake up call for alliance management with the US. A key takeaway was that Afghan players should be fully-fledged partners of post-conflict reconstruction.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan in the Global War on Terror (GWOT) 2

  The lecture elaborates more on the US role in Iraq in the GWOT. The US unilateral attack on Iraq in 2003 opened Pandora’s box. Our policy simulation will consider under what circumstance should an entity be regarded as a potential terrorist threat. After almost twenty years’ effort by US-led coalition in Afghanistan, Kabul fell with the surprising return of the Taliban in 2021. It raised the difficult question of how we should should have responded to the GWOT in the 21st century.

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  • US War on Iraq

    The Iraqi War was initiated by President Bush who had long been waiting for a perfect opportunity to topple its regime. DIME analysis is used in this class again to examine how this war influenced the US-Japan Alliance, and the US itself.

  • Japan’s Support for Reconstruction in Iraq: Cooperation with Australia

    Even after the fall of Baghdad, the Iraqi war was highly problematic due to limited support from other allies and partners. This part examines how Japan responded to this situation. We examine why and how Japan collaborated with local communities in Iraq along with support from Australia.

  • Policy Simulation of the Iraqi War

    Thinking about the future of Iraq is crucial because of the need for energy security for Japan, the US and the world. The simulation will provide insights about how the post-conflict Iraqi government will think and behave. Paradoxically, the US-led GWOT suddenly came to an end with the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan in an Era of Strategic Competition: Ukraine and Taiwan 1

  The ongoing crises over Ukraine, Taiwan, and Gaza depict increasing geopolitical competition. Given Japan’s volatile strategic environment and challenges like tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, it is obvious that Tokyo’s best option remains to be a strong allied supporter of the US while keeping close ties with its surrounding neighbors.

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  • “Security Renaissance” under Abe and beyond

    The lesson will first look into domestic challenges such as changes of government in Tokyo and the triple disaster of March, 2011. The triple disaster of 2011, tsunami, earthquake and Fukushima nuclear disaster, was a moment to reconfirm our trust in the Japan-US alliance, as the US military were ready to help the Japanese local population. Thereafter, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo came back to power and took the lead in reorganizing Japan’s national security apparatus.

  • International Aspect of Japan’s Security Policy

    Great Power Competitions shaped Japan’s strategic options in the late 2010s. By utilizing Professor Lawrence Freedman’s framework, the lecture explains Tokyo’s strategy in two ways. Tokyo’s “strategy from above” emphasized its alliance with the US to fight against Red Teams, while its “strategy from below” provided its foundation to win support from the Japanese public.

  • Three Steps to Simulation

    Three important steps for simulation are explained. First is to prepare for a Black Swan event which can happen anytime. Second is to consider different policy options through different perspectives. That is called Red Team thinking. Third is to design an original strategy from Red Team perspectives, based on its own SWOT analysis.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Japan in an Era of Strategic Competition: Ukraine and Taiwan 2

  “Grey zone situations”, defined by Japan, are situations that are moderate, not entirely peaceful nor conflictual. The key is that international cooperation and alliance partnership, backed up by its legitimacy, is needed to tackle such problems.

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  • Policy Simulation Design

    A fictional scenario based on the on-going Ukraine crisis is prepared. The goal of the simulation is to prevail in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) in a Grey Zone situation. The main focus is “strategic communications” to gain support from other international actors; the focus is not on actual battles nor operations.

  • Policy Simulation Exercises: Climate Change and New Regional Cooperation

    In this exercise, how to ensure the connectivity between the European theater (Ukraine) and the Indo-Pacific region (Taiwan) is the key. Be creative in how the situation can be managed peacefully.

  • Key Findings of the Simulation Exercise

    The simulation exercise and the lessons learned are reviewed. The interactions among Red Teams and Blue Teams in a volatile Black Swan situation is highly dynamic and unexpected; this HA/DR scenario should be the first step for students to “think about the unthinkable”.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

• Conclusion: Re-Designing Japan’s Future Vision

  The lecture is a recap of an earlier discussion on simulation exercises and lessons learned. Black Swan situations are a reality, and humanitarian assistance and disaster response operations are a new frontier for the military. A regional response should be the right approach to humanitarian disasters in future. So far the US has taken the lead in this field; yet, in the next generation, Red Teams will become more capable and win more support from the Global South. It remains to be seen how Japan can take on more responsibility than usual.

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  • Japan’s Regional Shift from the Asia Pacific to the Indo-Pacific

    The research question of this course is “why did Japan change the strategic narrative from the Asia Pacific to the Indo-Pacific?” We need to answer this question by revisiting 5W&1H.

  • Analytical Approach: Who-What-When-Where-Why & How

    Japan’s current vision dates back to the end of the Cold War. Tokyo redesigned its own national security concept after the sudden disappearance of the East-West divide. Its frontier became its strategic partnership with the Asian-Pacific countries, including China, Russia, ASEAN countries, and beyond. The current agenda in an age of Strategic Competition, however, has changed in order to ensure connectivity among “like-minded” partners like the US, Australia, India, South Korea, New Zealand, the Philippines, ASEAN countries, G-7 economic partners, plus EU and NATO.

  • Conclusion: Re-Designing Japan’s Security Position

    When discussing the redesigning of Japan’s security position, the key is “thinking about the unthinkable (TTU).” Three major points of TTU, “Multi-frontal crisis”, ” Multi Domain Operations” and “Living with Nuclear Weapons” which we all must face in reality, are discussed.

  Lecturers

  ／講師

  • Tomonori Yoshizaki

    Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

Staff／スタッフ

• 
  Tomonori Yoshizaki

  Tokyo University of Foreign Studies

Competency／コンピテンシー

Contact／お問合せ先

Tokyo University of Foreign Studies
Office for International Affairs
tufs_pcs_ondemand@tufs.ac.jp

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